Confidence Interval for a Binomial p: Recommend the Wilson Interval to Students

Is there anything more fundamental within the area of statistical inference than the estimation, in this case interval estimation, of a probability based on success/failure trials? The problem is conceptually easy for students to understand, but finding a satisfactory solution turns out to be an exercise that is far from trivial. Moreover, even learned scholars disagree as to which procedure to present in a teaching situation. Among several suggestions in the literature over the years, we will concentrate on Wald and Wilson intervals. From recent comments by colleagues, it seems there is still a believe that the Wald interval is worth bringing up as something useful, at least for large samples, in spite of all its deficiencies. What is most worrying is that, even today, a considerable amount of well-established and influential textbooks actually advocate the Wald interval.

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1 Comment

  1. I got to the CHANCE site after loging into the ASA via its home page. I have also clicked on the blue Member Login box on https://chance.amstat.org/2024/04/wilson-interval/. I am a paid up member of the ASA. But the CHANCE web site insists I must login again. When I try to relogin as above or directly from the SAS home page and click “access to CHANCE”, I see a message that I am leaving the ASA site. The CHANCE site appears not to recognize my ASA login no matter where I try to login. What’s going on?

    Edward Kemper
    ekemper1@umbc.edu
    ASA acct 135589

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