Debiased Aggregated Polls and Prediction Market Prices

Do your hopes and fears over an upcoming election shift with each new poll released? If so, consider Figure 1 the antidote to your daily roller coaster. Other than being an enjoyable pastime for many people, accurately documenting the underlying probability of victory at any given day before an election is critical for enabling academics to determine the impact of shocks to campaigns. Further, the more accurate and real-time the probabilities, the more efficient the public can be in choosing how to invest their time and money (in terms of having the greatest marginal impact for them and/or their cause) and the more efficient political organizations and campaigns can be in spending those resources.

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