Missing Well: Optimal Targeting of Soccer Shots

“Shoot for a post,” a youth soccer coach once instructed me. It seemed like good advice at the time—the goalkeeper was in the middle and I didn’t want to kick it to him—but a moment’s reflection shows that my coach was wrong. If the ball went exactly where I aimed every time, I’d have often hit the goal post, but scored few goals. In fact, I was (as all decent players are) about equally likely to miss left as right, so about half of the balls directed toward the goal post would have gone wide with no chance of scoring. Better to aim at a spot on the target, but where exactly?

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