What to consider when making fourth-down decisions

By M. Lawrence Clevenson and Jennifer Wright

It is Sunday afternoon in the late fall and a football game has just started between the Green Bay Packers and the St. Louis Rams on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. St. Louis received the opening kick-off, moved the ball forward for some plays, but their third-down attempt to reach a first down failed and left them with fourth down and two yards to go on their own 42-yard line. Without much thought, the punting team comes onto the field and St. Louis punts. The decision to punt on fourth down is so common that hardly anyone thinks about it. But, wait. Should St. Louis have punted, or should they have gone for it? One way to decide would be to quantify expected points after both decisions. But what does one need to know to do that?

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