Examining a Gambler’s Claims: Probabilistic Fact-Checking and Don Johnson’s Extraordinary Blackjack Winning Streak
Most gamblers don’t err on the low side when they answer questions about how much they won the night before. In this note, we examine claims about the exploits of a gambler, Don Johnson (a.k.a. the “Beast of Blackjack”), at casinos in Atlantic City as reported in the popular press. In The Atlantic article “The Man Who Broke Atlantic City,” Mark Bowden reported that Johnson won almost $6 million in one night at the Tropicana in Atlantic City and $5 million and $4 million over six months at the Borgata and Caesars, respectively.Some content is only viewable by ASA Members. If you are an ASA member, log in to Members Only and look for CHANCE under your publications.