Prediction Markets: How Accurate Are They?

Who are you planning to vote for in the next presidential election? Who do you think will really win the election? While both of these questions are used by pollsters to forecast which candidate will be elected, the responses given need not be the same. The distinction between these questions lies at the heart of the difference between traditional polling methods and prediction markets. Traditional opinion polling techniques are focused on grouping individ­uals’ absolute preferences, whereas prediction markets are focused on eliciting individuals’ beliefs about the probability each candidate will win.

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